Wesley Chapel home values fell as much as 3.3% by ZIP code over the past year as the broader Tampa Bay housing market posted some of the nation's steepest price declines.

The typical Wesley Chapel home was worth about $400,400 in August, down 2.8% from a year earlier and 11.9% below its August 2022 peak of $454,424, according to Zillow data compiled by Bright Florida Homes.

The decline varied by ZIP code. The typical home value in 33544 was about $422,900, down 1.3%. ZIP 33543 fell 2.9% to about $407,100, while 33545 dropped 3.3% to about $391,300.

Watergrass recorded a steeper decline, with its typical home value falling 7.1% to $382,380.

Across the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro, the median listing price fell 6.6% year over year in September to $385,398, according to Realtor.com's September housing report.

The median listing price per square foot declined 6%, the second-largest drop among the nation's 50 largest metros. Only Austin, Texas, recorded a larger decline at 8.4%.

More than one in four sellers cut prices

Price reductions appeared on 27.5% of active Tampa Bay listings in September, compared with 20.8% nationally.

Pasco County's median single-family sale price was $383,745 in August, according to Coldwell Banker AquaTerra Realty's market update. Homes took a median 43 days to go under contract, while months of supply stood at 4.3.

Tampa Bay's active inventory fell 3.8% from a year earlier, bucking the national trend. Nationwide, active listings increased 5.4%.

Mortgage rates climb above 7%

Higher borrowing costs are adding another affordability hurdle for buyers.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.03% for the week ending Sept. 24, according to Freddie Mac data reported by CNN. It was the fifth consecutive weekly increase.

The rate climbed again to 7.28% for the week ending Oct. 1, according to Freddie Mac.

The Federal Reserve separately raised its target federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point in September to a range of 3.75% to 4%.

At a purchase price of about $400,400 with 10% down, a 30-year mortgage at 7.03% would carry principal and interest of roughly $2,405 a month. Property taxes, homeowners insurance, mortgage insurance and other costs would increase the total monthly payment.

Danielle Hale, Realtor.com's chief economist, said improving inventory and more frequent price reductions have given buyers additional negotiating room, but affordability remains a constraint.

"Inventory is improving and more sellers are adjusting prices, yet the decline in pending sales makes clear that affordability remains a central constraint as the fall season gets underway," Hale said.

Nationally, pending inventory fell 4.1% year over year in September, the steepest annual decline since March 2025.

Realtor.com's annual forecast identifies Nov. 29 through Dec. 5 as the historically favorable buying window for the Tampa metro, when the company projects more listings and lower prices relative to seasonal peaks.